February 2012 MLB Events
February 2012 MLB Events
Calendar of MLB Events for February 2012 brought to you by baseballbettingpick.comMLB News
2010 ALCS Betting Odds and Preview2010-10-14
Sportsbook.com Series Price: New York Yankees -180, Texas Rangers +160
The Rangers make their Championship Series debut Friday when they host the Yankees in Game 1. The game features a pair of left-handed starters in CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) and C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA). Both southpaws are coming off ALDS wins with Sabathia working around some trouble in a 6-4 Yankees win while Wilson was lights out, limiting the Rays to just two hits over 6.1 shutout innings. Sportsbook.com currently has New York as -145 favorites over Texas (+135) for Friday night’s game.
After much debate, the Yankees have decided to go with Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA) in Game 2 and Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) in Game 3. The much maligned A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA) is set for Game 4.
Texas will send Colby Lewis to the mound in Game 2 (12-13, 3.72 ERA) and go with Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA) in Game 3. Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA) gets the nod in Game 4.
The Yankees and Rangers split their eight-game series this year, with Texas going 4-1 at home and the Yanks grabbing a three-game sweep in the Bronx April16-18.
Sabathia and Hughes have had tremendous success against this Texas lineup. Some significant numbers against Sabathia include Bengie Molina’s lifetime 1-for-19, Vladimir Guerrero’s 3-for-19 and Josh Hamilton’s 1-for-10. The 13 Rangers who have faced Sabathia are a combined 30-for-160 (.188 BA). Things are even worse for Texas against Phil Hughes. The Rangers are a paltry 3-for-38 against Hughes, with Michael Young and Jeff Francouer posting 0-for-7 marks against the right-hander. A.J. Burnett has held the Rangers to a .208 average while Texas hits Andy Pettitte at a .310 clip.
Nick Swisher and Derek Jeter have solid numbers against Texas’ projected starters, with Swisher going 6-for-20 against Wilson and 8-for-25 against Lee. Jeter enters the series 5-for-14 and 15-for-36 respectively. The opposite can be said for Alex Rodriguez who is just 1-for-13 against Wilson and a mediocre 6-for-22 (.273 BA) against Lee. Jeter is also the only Yankee to record a hit off Colby Lewis. Jeter is 3-for-5 with two HR lifetime while the other Yankees who have faced Lewis (Berkman, Posada, Teixeira) are 0-for-15
Here are some baseball betting trends that could shed some light on the ALCS:
NY YANKEES are 81-43 (+26.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.6, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES are 60-34 (+21.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*).
TEXAS is 16-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.4, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).
TEXAS Manager RON WASHINGTON is 42-24 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game in the second half of the season as the manager of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*).
GAME 1 ONLY - C.J. WILSON is 18-4 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record). The average score was WILSON 5.0, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*).
Now that you know the key numbers for the ALCS, head over to Sportsbook.com for all of your MLB betting needs.
MLB: Five teams go for sweeps on Wednesday
2010-07-07
Another full schedule of 15 baseball games awaits on Wednesday night, and interestingly, in one-third of them, one of the teams is looking to wrap up a 3-game sweep of its opponent. The Cubs, Tigers, Rays, Yankees, and Royals all have a chance to finish off already successful series’. Let’s take a look at those matchups, focusing specifically on the sweep aspect and how we might take advantage for Wednesday. Get all of the key betting information for these and all 10 other MLB games on the GAME MATCHUPS page on Sportsbook.com.
(963) CHICAGO CUBS (DEMPSTER) at (964) ARIZONA (JACKSON) 9:40 PM
With a road record of 17-24 this season, sweeps are obviously a rarity for the Cubs when away from Wrigleyville. In fact, it has only happened one time in 2010, that being a 3-game set back in Milwaukee in late April. The Diamondbacks have been swept twice at home this season, as they lost six straight games to the Brewers and Dodgers back in May.
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Ryan Dempster vs. Edwin Jackson. The Cubs are just 6-11 in Dempster’s starts, while Arizona has won four straight games with Jackson on the hill, including the no-hitter at Tampa on June 25th.
One of the more interesting trends for today’s game concerns the Cubs’ struggles as road chalk this season:
• CHICAGO CUBS are 5-12 (-11.4 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
Dempster and the Cubs are playing as -115 favorites, but the StatFox Game Estimator indicates the line should be only -107. With Jackson pitching well of late, I’d say there’s a better chance the D-Backs avoid the sweep than the opposite.
(969) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) at (970) DETROIT (SCHERZER) 7:05 PM
The most likely sweep on the board today finds the Tigers looking for their third straight win over the Orioles. Detroit is a heavy -235 favorite according to Sportsbook.com with Max Scherzer (5-6, 4.88 ERA) taking the hill for the hosts and Bradley Bergesen (3-5, 6.64) going for the O’s. Baltimore is of course no stranger to seeing the brooms on the road, having been swept five times already in 2010. The Tigers are looking for their fifth home sweep themselves, and boast the American League’s best home mark overall at 29-12.
While the price on this one seems fairly steep with Scherzer’s overall 2010 numbers, the fact that he has a 1.69 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 25-2/3 innings in his last four starts makes it even tougher to back the underdogs. Plus, how can you overlook a trend like this:
• BALTIMORE is 10-40 (-24.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.1, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 3*)
(971) BOSTON (WAKEFIELD) at (972) TAMPA BAY (PRICE) 7:10 PM
When I focused on Game 1 of the 3-game set between the Red Sox and Rays on Monday night, I pointed out the following trend, which now includes back-to-back losses over the last two nights:
• BOSTON is 3-19 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 4*)
Having been turned back in consecutive one-run games, the Red Sox turn to Tim Wakefield to stop the bleeding. Unfortunately, Boston is only 5-8 in his starts this season and he is matched by a pitcher enjoying a breakout season in David Price (11-4, 2.42 ERA).
Perhaps the one thing going for the Sox here today is that WAKEFIELD is 18-6 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.249.
At -175, the Rays have been favored by a nickel more in each of the three consecutive contests. Considering that Boston has not been swept on the road since the beginning of May, and actually did the sweeping last time in Tampa (5/24-5/26), I’d be leery of laying this high price for Wednesday. The Sox left 11 men on base on Tuesday and are scoring 5.8 runs per game vs. lefties in 2010. They could be due for a breakout game.
(977) NY YANKEES (BURNETT) at (978) OAKLAND (GONZALEZ) 10:05 PM
As far as season numbers go, the A’s and Mariners have distinct starting pitching advantages in their quests to avoid getting swept at home. The A’s match Gio Gonzalez (7-5, 3.50 ERA) against the Yankees’ A.J. Burnett (6-7, 4.90). The latter has been on the hill for six straight Yankees’ losses. Although he pitched very well in his last outing at Toronto, Burnett’s five prior starts amounted to 29 runs allowed in 23 innings. Gonzalez meanwhile, has only allowed five or more runs in two of his 17 starts this season, and has allowed just one run in 19-2/3 innings in his last three starts. Even with all of this info available for both pitchers, oddsmakers have installed the Yankees as -120 favorites. It all sets up for a very powerful system backing the home dogs:
• Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. (56-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +38.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The A’s offense is struggling right now, but it might not matter with Gonzalez on the hill. Look for Oakland to avoid a second 3-game home sweep of 2010.
(979) KANSAS CITY (DAVIES) at (980) SEATTLE (FISTER) 10:10 PM
Don’t look now but the Royals are playing very good baseball, and they will look for their first series sweep of 3-games or more in 2010 when they take on Seattle Wednesday night. Oddsmakers don’t like their chances, installing the Mariners are -145 favorites behind Doug Fister, but when sifting through the facts & figures, bettors may see things differently.
First and foremost, the Royals are killing the baseball of late, pounding out 125 hits during their current 9-3 surge. While leaving men on base has been a problem, they are getting just enough pitching to come out on the right end of the scoreboard most often.
The Mariners have gone just 4-8 since their season long 7-game winning streak was snapped a couple weeks back. The magic number for them has been five runs, as they are 4-0 in the 12-game stretch when reaching that figure as opposed to 0-8 when coming up short.
One other angle going for Kansas City is that Fister, while boasting strong stats for 2010 overall (3.22 ERA, 1.047 WHIP), has struggled his last three times out, yielding 14 runs in 16-1/3 innings.
Davies has been pretty effective for the Royals against lesser hitting teams on the road lately:
• DAVIES is 8-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was DAVIES 5.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Don’t be surprised to see the Royals finish this one off, despite oddsmakers’ indications.
MLB: Final MLB Weekend Betting Trends 10/2-10/4
2009-10-02
The Major League Baseball season is down to its final weekend, and just one order of business remains to be settled before the postseason begins on Tuesday. With Colorado becoming the most recent team to clinch a playoff berth yesterday, only the A.L. Central representative has left to be decided. Detroit goes into the weekend with a two-game lead on Minnesota, with the clubs having just split four games this week in Motown. Read on as we go through the upcoming weekend series for each team and assess their chances at extending their season. Plus, we’ll cover the other intriguing action and release the top StatFox betting trends for you to utilize in your weekend wagering.
On paper, it would seem that the Twins have the better matchup this weekend, hosting Kansas City for three games. The Royals started making vacation plans for October a long time ago, and are 29-games below .500 for the season. They are also just 2-6 in their last eight games. The Twins are only in a position to stay alive for a postseason berth because of their success against division opponents, as they are 42-27 for +11.0 units in 2009 vs. A.L. Central foes. Included in that is a 9-6 mark against Kansas City. However, the Royals own a 4-2 series edge in the games at the Metrodome this year and pose a threat to the Twins playoff hopes if for no other reason than that ace Zack Greinke is scheduled to pitch on Saturday.
The Tigers aren’t exactly seizing control of the division and come into their weekend set against Chicago with a 3-4 mark in their L7 games. Detroit has been hitting well in that span at .279, but leaving a ton of runners on base, 8.3 per game. The White Sox hope to finish their season strong and continue where they left off a week ago at home versus Detroit, when they took two of three. They’ve been winning with pitching, as five of their last six opponents have been held t seven hits or less. Still, they are just 34-44 on the road in ’09, while Detroit boasts an impressive 50-28 mark at Comerica Park.
With a magic number of 2 for clinching the title, the Tigers can take care of business as early as Friday night or win out themselves by taking two of three from Chicago.
In the National League, the games may not mean a whole lot as far as who is getting into the postseason, but there is still an order of finish to be determined. The Dodgers, Cardinals, and Phillies are all within two games of one another as division winners. The best record of course, gets the top seed, however, Los Angeles cannot host Colorado in the divisional playoff round, so that matchup will fall to either Philadelphia or St. Louis. Currently, it would be the Phillies, as they are a game up on manager Tony Larussa’s club. Philly hosts Florida this weekend, while the Cardinals wrap up the regular season at home against Milwaukee. The Dodgers meanwhile, will still try to wrap up home field advantage for the N.L. playoffs by taking care of business vs. Colorado.
Now, here’s a look at those top betting trends for the final weekend of the season. Good luck.
MLB Series Betting- Tampa Bay at Kansas City
2009-07-21
The Tampa Bay Rays start the second half of the season believing they can play much better baseball then they did most of the first half of the year. The Rays (48-41, -0.7 units) trail the New York Yankees by four losses in the wild card chase and Boston by seven for the AL East division lead. In some ways, Tampa Bay feels fortunate they are still within reach of the postseason after floundering at or below .500 for the first two months of the season. "We didn't play nearly our best baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We did at times, but a little bit too streaky."
One area that needs immediate shoring up is Tampa’s play on the road. They Rays are 18-26 (-7.8) and the skipper thinks his team is capable of turning this around. “We just have to get out there in the second half. We have to take advantage and not make the same kinds of mistakes that put us in a bind in the first half. We're capable of that. We're capable of playing a higher level of baseball on a more consistent basis." Maddon said.
Kansas City (37-51, -13.9 units) starts the second half having lost five of six and in search of winning formula from last September that fueled this season’s optimism. The Royals first order of business is finding ways to score more runs. Kansas City ranks 28th in runs scored at 3.9 per game and hopes Alex Gordon can provide offensive punch coming off of hip surgery.
Because ace Zach Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA) only pitched one inning in the All-Star game, Royals manager Trey Hillman moved him up to start the series. Greinke hasn’t been quite as effective as he was early in the season, when he was un-hittable and has lost his last two starts, though the 3-1 loss the last time out was in part due to shabby K.C. defense. The Royals are -120 money line favorites at Sportsbook.com, with total 07. Greinke and the Royals are 16-6 when the money line is +125 to -125 and 18-6 UNDER in the second half of the season.
Tampa Bay will counter with James Shields (6-6, 3.42), who is 2-4 on the road, with the Rays winners only twice in his eight starts as visitor. The Rays are off a pair of losses, but have enjoyed great success on Friday’s with 29-11 mark. Shields’ has liked the look of Royals uniform and is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City. He’s averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against K.C. (32) in the 36 innings he’s worked, while allowing just three free passes. The Rays are 14-3 UNDER July in road games since last year.
Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay
Because of the shifting of Royals rotation, Brian Bannister (6-7, 3.66) is expected to be the starter for Game 2. Bannister is off arguably the best game of his career, throwing seven shutout innings at Boston before tiring slightly in allowing one run on three hits in over 7 2/3 in 3-1 triumph. Coming into the series, Kansas City had won only three of last dozen contests at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 4-1 in Bannister’s home starts against winning teams and 6-2 if favored.
Only staunch baseball bettors might know this, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks third in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Besides pounding out 9.3 hits per game on average, the former Devil Rays have newfound patience as the dish, walking 4.1 times per game, which is third best in baseball, just behind the Yankees and Red Sox. The former masthead of the Rays staff, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 7.11) will take the ball for middle encounter. Since being injured, the lefthander has not been effective, but at least pain-free. Having last won on May 9, Kazmir hopes pitching in a Game 2 situation will turn luck around since he and his teammates are 22-5 in that spot.
Game 2 Edge: Kansas City
The series finale will be afternoon affair. The Rays are 16-13 playing in the light of day, with Kansas City unsightly 12-19. Matt Garza (6-7, 3.73) is one of the American League’s biggest enigmas. Only a handful of hurlers have his stuff, yet he finds a way to have one bad inning and has losing record. He’s 0-4 with 4.02 ERA against K.C. The Royals will send Luke Hochevar (5-3, 5.34) to toe the slap. Since returning in early June for stint in minors, Hochevar has pitched up to his capabilities, with 5-1 record and 3.97 ERA. Besides the quality record, he’s been innings-eater with six of last seven starts lasting as least six innings.
Game 3 Edge: Kansas City
Thought this was a good week to change it up and go with a few teams that don’t receive much of the acclaim. The matchup is very close, but Tampa Bay has poor road record and two of its starters in this series are fumbling along, not pitching well. Similar to a thin slice of pastrami, I’ll support the Royals by the slimmest of margins.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -125, Kansas City -105
StatFox Edge Pick: Kansas City
MLB: The San Diego Padres are worth a look
2009-05-21
It’s not everyday during the baseball season this year, the sports bettor opens up his computer and sees the other NL team from Southern California as a potential investment, especially when Jake Peavy or Chris Young are not the listed starting pitchers. Nevertheless, strange occurrences are common during a long baseball season and this sets up as one of them. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what San Diego has going for it as a home favorite tonight vs. the Giants. Get the latest line on the LIVE ODDS page.
After starting the year 9-3, San Diego (17-22, -4.1 units) went on to lose 19 of next 23 games. Not unexpectedly, the Padres have lacked offense, scoring 3.8 runs per game, thanks to .234 team batting average and equally disturbing .310 on-base percentage. The fact is they just don’t have enough good hitters that will allow them to put together consistent attack.
Despite these shortcomings, San Diego is 12-6 at Petco Park, thanks to shutdown bullpen, who has 2.51 ERA at home (compared to over six on the road). The Friars have put together another nice little streak, having won four in a row.
The Padres will start Chad Gaudin (0-3, 4.91, 1.545 WHIP) who has worked out of the bullpen and started this season. He’s been part of the regular rotation of late and that is where he’s picked up his three losses and been even less effective with 6. 35 ERA. About the lone bright spot about Gaudin is he’s not been taken deep in 22 innings of work.
San Francisco (19-19, +0.3) suffers from a similar malady as San Diego, a lack of offense. The Giants are 14th in runs scored this season, just ahead of Arizona and San Diego and have a power outage. To this point of the season, the average National League team has 38 home runs as a team, San Francisco has just 20, the worst in baseball.
With a 6-11 road record and losers of five of last six, the Giants will hand the ball to Jonathan Sanchez (1-3, 5.06, 1.719), who is 0-2 with a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts and WHIP of 2.249. In Sanchez last three outings, he’s given up 20 hits and 13 runs, in 14 2/3 innings and been wild to boot with 13 walks. San Fran has lost 15 of the lefthander’s last 21 starts.
Sportsbook.com has San Diego as -136 money line favorites, with total Un8 and the Padres fit a super situation.
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, who are poor power team (averaging less than a homer per game), against a starting pitcher who gives up less than one long ball every two starts, with a cold starting pitcher, whose WHIP is 2.000 or higher over his last three starts.
That is a mouthful, but the results are superb. This system is 35-6, 85.4 percent since 2004. These games have tended to be blowouts, with the play against team losing by 3.1 runs per game. With San Diego finding ways to win and the Giants 3-10 as an underdog, the Padres deserve some consideration on Hump Day.
MLB: Top Baseball Weekend Power Trends
2008-09-12
With the Angels having clinched a trip to the postseason already, the rest of the eight playoff spots remain to be filled. A couple of the pennant races are really tightening up, and this weekend’s games figure to have a big impact, especially in the N.L. Wildcard, where Milwaukee and Philadelphia are continuing a 4-game set in the City of Brotherly Love. Just two weeks remain in the season after Sunday’s games. Here’s a closer look at the upcoming action and a Top StatFox Power Trend from each of baseball’s 15 series’ this weekend.
The big series of the weekend is between the Phillies and Brewers. After Philadelphia’s 5-3 win on Thursday night in the opener of the series, only three games separate the teams in the N.L. wildcard standings. Neither team is playing its best baseball of the season at this point though, so each is looking to turn it around. The Brewers have the unfortunate timing of not throwing C.C. Sabathia in the series. Both clubs have another competitor to deal with though in the wildcard race, the Houston Astros. Hurricane Ike has postponed the first two games of the Cubs-Astros series and the teams are still working with Major League Baseball on arranging a suitable schedule. With a record of 34-12 in its L46 games, perhaps only Mother Nature can slow down Houston.
In the American League, the only playoff race where it remains to be seen which team will make it to the postseason and which will go home is in the A.L. Central. Mediocre play by both clubs has left the White Sox and Twins battling for one playoff spot, as wildcard dreams are no longer in the picture. The teams are separated by a single game with 16 to go. Minnesota hits the road in Baltimore for the weekend, while Chicago welcomes Detroit to town.
The A.L. East race is still tight at the top, but both the Rays and Red Sox are in comfortable position for making the postseason. It just remains to be seen who will be the division champion and who will be the wildcard representative. Coming off their 3-game set in Boston in which the Rays took two games in dramatic fashion to open up a 2-1/2 game lead, Tampa will head to New York to take on the listless Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have been relegated to the role of spoiler at this point. The Sox meanwhile, will host red-hot Toronto.
With such little time left in the regular season, every game is critical for the contending teams. Don’t miss a key play. Now, here’s a look at a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the weekend’s 15 series:
ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH
ST LOUIS is 18-6 OVER (+11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was ST LOUIS 7.0, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)
MILWAUKEE at PHILADELPHIA
MILWAUKEE is 0-8 (-9.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 2.9, OPPONENT 7.0 - (Rating = 3*)
ATLANTA at NY METS
ATLANTA is 3-14 (-10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 3.4, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at FLORIDA
WASHINGTON is 2-18 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON 2.4, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*)
CHICAGO CUBS at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 16-8 (+12.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better this season.
The average score was HOUSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*)
LA DODGERS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 17-35 (-18.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.
The average score was COLORADO 4.3, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
CINCINNATI at ARIZONA
CINCINNATI is 26-41 (-22.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.4, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 14-26 (-14.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.4, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at BOSTON
BOSTON is 7-16 (-14.9 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 3.8, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*)
MINNESOTA at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 8-22 (-15.3 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.5, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 2*)
TAMPA BAY at NY YANKEES
TAMPA BAY is 13-47 (-27.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.5, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 2*)
KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND
KANSAS CITY is 7-20 (-13.0 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.8, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
DETROIT at CHI WHITE SOX
DETROIT is 13-27 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.
The average score was DETROIT 3.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
TEXAS at OAKLAND
TEXAS is 21-12 (+11.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 6.3, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
SEATTLE at LA ANGELS
SEATTLE is 13-4 OVER (+9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 4.9, OPPONENT 7.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Baseball Betting 2nd Half Outlook- AL
2008-07-17
With the second half of the season about to commence, here is an in-depth look at many of the different perspectives of the contenders to win divisions or American League pennant. We’ll look into scheduling aspects, key stats that the contenders must maintain or improve upon in the last 60+ games remaining in the season. Additionally, we’ll look into these teams’ odds to win division or be AL representative in the World Series.
The Los Angeles Angels have the best record in the American League at 57-38 (+12.5 units). Their style of play in more National League-like, thanks to manager Mike Scioscia preferring to steal bases, having runners on the move and being aggressive. Despite superior record, they rank just third at Sportsbook.com to be AL squad to be in Fall Classic at 3-1 odds. L.A. is only +21 in score differential, thanks to faulty offense. The Halos are 11th in runs scored in the AL, 12th in on-base percentage and impatient at the plate, ranking next to last in walks. The L.A. pitching staff is awesome, however the bullpen ranks only 11th in ERA in the AL. The Angles open the second half with Boston and Cleveland at the “Big A” in Anaheim. After that they head east to face Baltimore, the Red Sox and New York. In scheduling oddity, they have more games left with the Yankees (7), than with division rival Oakland (6).
Oakland continues to hang around in the AL West thanks to tremendous pitching from mostly talented youngsters. The A’s allow the fewest runs; have the lowest OBP surrendered and fourth best bullpen ERA. On offense, Oakland scuffles. The A’s are 11th in OBP and have the 2nd most strikeouts, making scoring runs an uphill battle. After the break, the Athletics road schedule is brutal, with series at New York, at Tampa Bay, at Boston, at Toronto, at Detroit and at Minnesota. Starting August 1, 20 of next 26 contests will be in traveling grays. Oakland is 4-1 to win division and real long shot at 30-1 to make Series.
Texas has baseball’s best offense-to-pitching dichotomy. The Rangers are first in runs scored, 2nd in OBP and 2nd in walks. These free swingers whiff more than any team in the junior circuit. Pitching numbers has Texas last in runs allowed, OBP, walks and next to last in strikeouts and bullpen ERA. In spite of playing pretty good baseball to have 50-46 record, hard to consider them even serious wild card contenders. The Rangers fate could be decided quickly with nine-game roadie at Twins, at White Sox and at Oakland.
The Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central by 1.5 games and are second in the league in run differential at +83. The White Sox offense has gone through a few droughts, yet have bounced back to be third in runs scored. Manager Ozzie Guillen has produced a few tirades; however they have had nothing to do with the pitching. Sox pitchers do a fantastic job in limiting big innings; ranking 2nd in fewest walks and stay out of jams, being 3rd in strikeouts. Closer Bobby Jenks will start the second part of the season on the DL, with the Pale Hose having enough to cover up with the finest bullpen ERA in AL. If Chicago can but together 6-4 road trip starting July 25, they return to U.S. Cellular Field to take on Detroit, Boston and Kansas City, where they are sensational 32-13. Sox are 1-2 to take AL Central and 6-1 to make World Series.
Have to give manager Ron Gardenhire credit again, as most preseason magazines had Minnesota 4th or 5th in the division. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are legit stars and Michael Cuddyer has turned himself into a good player from a part-timer. With offensive deficiencies in the lower part of the line-up, scoring a lot of runs will continue to be an issue, but as long as the pitchers continue to give up the fewest walks, Minnesota is still a threat. The Twinkies open second half at the MetroDome and will play 19 of 31 there thru August 20. After this they leave for 15-day, 14-game road trip that sends them out West and to Canada. When the Twins arrive back home, everyone will know if 2-1 odds to division were true.
Detroit really missed a golden opportunity to close the gap in division; losing three of four to Minnesota at home in last series. If they had reversed those numbers, the Tigers would be only five back of Chicago and 1.5 behind the Twins. Holding a 19-27 road record, Jim Leyland’s club will prove if they deserve being mentioned for postseason or just underachievers. Detroit will start with 17 of 20 on the road, which includes six conflicts with the White Sox. To have any hope, they will need to be within four games of Sox to have any potential real chance it appears. The Tigers are 4-1 to win division title and with pitching staff that is 12th in OBP and walks, the Tigers will need gigantic leap by all members of the staff to make run.
When analyzing numbers, no wonder Boston is 13-10 odds to return to World Series to defend crown. Second in runs, first in free passes and OBP, the Red Sox do all the little things right. They will definitely have to clean up 21-29 road record and possibly having David Ortiz back will help. The starting pitching is secure, with more consistency needed out of the bullpen to put together winning streaks of six or seven games. The schedule is fairly balanced and the Red Sox will enjoy a couple more days off than competitors, having played the most games in baseball to this point. Hard not to like Boston chances, if for no other reason than 36-11 record at Fenway Park.
Everyone was waiting for Tampa Bay slump and it came right before All-Star break. The Rays will seek to quickly regroup at Tropicana Field, where they are 36-14. Great pitching has kept Tampa Bay on everyone’s mind, being second in OBP allowed, 3rd best bullpen and 4th in runs allowed. The offense runs hot and cold, which is exhibited by being 3rd in walks and 3rd in striking out. Manager Joe Maddon will have to massage the egos of his young team, since after six home games starting Friday, 20 of next 29 are on the road. The Rays will have mettle tested in September also, playing AL East clubs, plus six with Twins and trio with Tigers. Tampa is 1-1 to steal the East and 5-2 to be Series rep from the AL.
The Yankees still believe they have enough to at least be wild card team. Injured players are returning, giving the New York faithful hope. Statistically, the numbers are not present to suggest such a run, being rather pedestrian in most categories. Joe Girardi’s squad will have opportunity to get on a roll with 13 of 16 at Yankee Stadium beginning Friday. The Bronx Bombers will need to likely be very close come Labor Day, with only 10 home games at Yankee Stadium in September. New York is just 7-1 to win division yet interestingly enough, have same 6-1 odds as White Sox to play in World Series.
Though a real long shot, have to at least mention Toronto, with its exceptional pitching, ranking 2nd in runs allowed. If the Blue Jays could at least be a top five offense team in the second part of the year, they would have to be a factor and sneak up to be in the hunt for wild card