Baseball betting pick
July 2nd MLB news ... Welcome to Baseball betting pick, the site with the baseball gambler in mind.
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Whether you crave an analysis on a pitching match-up or a breakdown of how a particular team plays away on grass, this site will provide you with all of that information and so much more.
Be sure to log on daily during the baseball season if your goal is scoring a profit on the “boys of summer”.
Giancarlo Stanton playing a dangerous game: believing in the Marlins2014-11-17
And with that out of the way, and Stantons signature soon to dry on a contract that guarantees him this ungodly sum, comes the answer to a question philosophers and paupers alike have asked for eons: Apparently, the price of a soul is $325 million.
What Robert Johnson did with a guitar, Giancarlo Stanton does with a bat, and in order to preserve that in Miami, Jeffrey Loria promised Stanton just shy of what he spent on his entire teams combined payroll for the first eight seasons he owned it. This is a staggering deal, a monumental deal, the sort of deal in years and dollars that fits the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers or Boston Red Soxs bailiwick.
Here, instead, are the Miami Marlins, owned by Loria, the man who along with his ex-wifes son, David Samson, weaseled his way into taxpayers building him a brand-new ballpark despite his continuous ability to trade away all the players worth a damn under his control. He has done this again, and again, and again, and this time he swears its different, and maybe it actually is, because Stanton and the advisers that surround him are intelligent, conscientious, forthright people who wouldnt sign just for the years and the dollars.
What that combination can do is make you want to believe the best in people, even people like Loria
and Samson, whose last endeavor into big money ended in a spectacular fire sale that drew Stantons ire. He was the last person they wanted angry: a monster power hitter in a sport with a dearth, a marketer's fantasy with his handsome looks and multiple ethnicities that appeal to a wide swath, a good person and a grand presence and a dream anchor around which to build, if only the Marlins could build something Loria and Samson would keep together longer than a sneeze.
The fine print of the contract remains a secret for now, and perhaps it contains a greater explanation of what took Stanton from vehemently against any sort of extension with the Marlins to offering Loria and Samson his prime. Surely an opt-out clause helps. Ultimately, this may be baseballs version of a football deal: big in years and dollars, far smaller in reality. If Stanton gets an opt-out at 30 years old, say, this would essentially be a five-year contract with an eight-year insurance policy for Stanton.
Giving the Marlins a half-decade to prove Lorias previous decade-plus of ownership was a mirage is generous of Stanton. He couldve waited two years, hit free agency and landed the mother lode then. Only he saw, with one Mike Fiers pitch in September that shattered his face and required surgery, how little is guaranteed, how the baseball gods can smite even the good.
The Marlins did right by Stanton during his recovery, engendering good will before meeting with him and delivering the sort of staggering contract proposal that included a huge chunk of we-know-you-cant-stand-us money. The Marlins tried to wipe away their misdeeds with zeroes. And no matter how principled a man, how stubborn he may be in his opinion, staring at this $325,000,000 at 25 years old forces him to ask the logical follow-up: OK, so what now?
The answer satisfied Stanton. Hes got at least one fail-safe key in an opt-out, and with a 13-year deal and a creative agent, there could be more possibilities for him to abscond more than one opt-out or vesting opt-outs in addition to the no-trade clause that protects the Marlins from straight dumping him? should Loria do Loria.
Can Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria be trusted to build around Giancarlo Stanton?
Can Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria be trusted to build around Giancarlo Stanton?
Which he will. Because rare is the 73-year-old man who suddenly looks at what made him stinking rich and does the complete opposite. Unless Jose Fernandez is the rare Scott Boras client who ignores advice to hit free agency, hes gone after the 2018 season which means the Marlins will trade him before that. When hes shipped off, or Christian Yelich, or Marcell Ozuna, or someone else who gets too expensive, how will Stanton react?
We know what Loria and Samson will do: cast blame outward. First their payroll was less than Alex Rodriguezs annual salary because of the lack of a viable stadium. Then when the stadium was built and they lost, they blamed their dumping money on an underachieving team. Its always something with them.
Stanton knows this, and once he dots his I and crosses the pair of Ts, hell be locked in with a clear conscience and deep hope. Hes trusting people who have lied to keep their promises, and its a great risk. Stanton loves Miami and his team, and he believes that with the Marlins power arms and his bat they can win. Beating the Nationals wont be easy. The Mets, too, pose a formidable challenge. And if they want to compete with either, the Marlins must beef up their payroll well past the $100 million mark, because one guy taking up more than a quarter of a teams salary has proven incompatible with winning in modern baseball.
Over the next few years, Stanton will find out whether his trust was well-placed or this truly was a Faustian bargain. Hes about to inherit a title: highest-paid athlete ever. He wants another: World Series champion. The latter ultimately goes back to the Marlins, to Loria and Samson, whose past actions would doom Stantons sobriquets mutually exclusive.
No, you cant turn down $325 million. Giancarlo Stanton will get his money if he wants it, and theres great solace in that, and hell opt out if he wants that, and theres comfort there, too. Ever present will be Jeffrey Loria, the majordomo of the Marlins, paying his hefty price, getting exactly what he wanted, smiling with his devilish grin.
2010 ALCS Betting Odds and Preview2010-10-14
Sportsbook.com Series Price: New York Yankees -180, Texas Rangers +160
The Rangers make their Championship Series debut Friday when they host the Yankees in Game 1. The game features a pair of left-handed starters in CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) and C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA). Both southpaws are coming off ALDS wins with Sabathia working around some trouble in a 6-4 Yankees win while Wilson was lights out, limiting the Rays to just two hits over 6.1 shutout innings. Sportsbook.com currently has New York as -145 favorites over Texas (+135) for Friday night’s game.
After much debate, the Yankees have decided to go with Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA) in Game 2 and Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) in Game 3. The much maligned A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA) is set for Game 4.
Texas will send Colby Lewis to the mound in Game 2 (12-13, 3.72 ERA) and go with Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA) in Game 3. Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA) gets the nod in Game 4.
The Yankees and Rangers split their eight-game series this year, with Texas going 4-1 at home and the Yanks grabbing a three-game sweep in the Bronx April16-18.
Sabathia and Hughes have had tremendous success against this Texas lineup. Some significant numbers against Sabathia include Bengie Molina’s lifetime 1-for-19, Vladimir Guerrero’s 3-for-19 and Josh Hamilton’s 1-for-10. The 13 Rangers who have faced Sabathia are a combined 30-for-160 (.188 BA). Things are even worse for Texas against Phil Hughes. The Rangers are a paltry 3-for-38 against Hughes, with Michael Young and Jeff Francouer posting 0-for-7 marks against the right-hander. A.J. Burnett has held the Rangers to a .208 average while Texas hits Andy Pettitte at a .310 clip.
Nick Swisher and Derek Jeter have solid numbers against Texas’ projected starters, with Swisher going 6-for-20 against Wilson and 8-for-25 against Lee. Jeter enters the series 5-for-14 and 15-for-36 respectively. The opposite can be said for Alex Rodriguez who is just 1-for-13 against Wilson and a mediocre 6-for-22 (.273 BA) against Lee. Jeter is also the only Yankee to record a hit off Colby Lewis. Jeter is 3-for-5 with two HR lifetime while the other Yankees who have faced Lewis (Berkman, Posada, Teixeira) are 0-for-15
Here are some baseball betting trends that could shed some light on the ALCS:
NY YANKEES are 81-43 (+26.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.6, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES are 60-34 (+21.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*).
TEXAS is 16-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.4, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).
TEXAS Manager RON WASHINGTON is 42-24 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game in the second half of the season as the manager of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*).
GAME 1 ONLY - C.J. WILSON is 18-4 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record). The average score was WILSON 5.0, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*).
Now that you know the key numbers for the ALCS, head over to Sportsbook.com for all of your MLB betting needs.
MLB: Five teams go for sweeps on Wednesday2010-07-07
Another full schedule of 15 baseball games awaits on Wednesday night, and interestingly, in one-third of them, one of the teams is looking to wrap up a 3-game sweep of its opponent. The Cubs, Tigers, Rays, Yankees, and Royals all have a chance to finish off already successful series’. Let’s take a look at those matchups, focusing specifically on the sweep aspect and how we might take advantage for Wednesday. Get all of the key betting information for these and all 10 other MLB games on the GAME MATCHUPS page on Sportsbook.com.
(963) CHICAGO CUBS (DEMPSTER) at (964) ARIZONA (JACKSON) 9:40 PM
With a road record of 17-24 this season, sweeps are obviously a rarity for the Cubs when away from Wrigleyville. In fact, it has only happened one time in 2010, that being a 3-game set back in Milwaukee in late April. The Diamondbacks have been swept twice at home this season, as they lost six straight games to the Brewers and Dodgers back in May.
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Ryan Dempster vs. Edwin Jackson. The Cubs are just 6-11 in Dempster’s starts, while Arizona has won four straight games with Jackson on the hill, including the no-hitter at Tampa on June 25th.
One of the more interesting trends for today’s game concerns the Cubs’ struggles as road chalk this season:
• CHICAGO CUBS are 5-12 (-11.4 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
Dempster and the Cubs are playing as -115 favorites, but the StatFox Game Estimator indicates the line should be only -107. With Jackson pitching well of late, I’d say there’s a better chance the D-Backs avoid the sweep than the opposite.
(969) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) at (970) DETROIT (SCHERZER) 7:05 PM
The most likely sweep on the board today finds the Tigers looking for their third straight win over the Orioles. Detroit is a heavy -235 favorite according to Sportsbook.com with Max Scherzer (5-6, 4.88 ERA) taking the hill for the hosts and Bradley Bergesen (3-5, 6.64) going for the O’s. Baltimore is of course no stranger to seeing the brooms on the road, having been swept five times already in 2010. The Tigers are looking for their fifth home sweep themselves, and boast the American League’s best home mark overall at 29-12.
While the price on this one seems fairly steep with Scherzer’s overall 2010 numbers, the fact that he has a 1.69 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 25-2/3 innings in his last four starts makes it even tougher to back the underdogs. Plus, how can you overlook a trend like this:
• BALTIMORE is 10-40 (-24.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.1, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 3*)
(971) BOSTON (WAKEFIELD) at (972) TAMPA BAY (PRICE) 7:10 PM
When I focused on Game 1 of the 3-game set between the Red Sox and Rays on Monday night, I pointed out the following trend, which now includes back-to-back losses over the last two nights:
• BOSTON is 3-19 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 4*)
Having been turned back in consecutive one-run games, the Red Sox turn to Tim Wakefield to stop the bleeding. Unfortunately, Boston is only 5-8 in his starts this season and he is matched by a pitcher enjoying a breakout season in David Price (11-4, 2.42 ERA).
Perhaps the one thing going for the Sox here today is that WAKEFIELD is 18-6 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.249.
At -175, the Rays have been favored by a nickel more in each of the three consecutive contests. Considering that Boston has not been swept on the road since the beginning of May, and actually did the sweeping last time in Tampa (5/24-5/26), I’d be leery of laying this high price for Wednesday. The Sox left 11 men on base on Tuesday and are scoring 5.8 runs per game vs. lefties in 2010. They could be due for a breakout game.
(977) NY YANKEES (BURNETT) at (978) OAKLAND (GONZALEZ) 10:05 PM
As far as season numbers go, the A’s and Mariners have distinct starting pitching advantages in their quests to avoid getting swept at home. The A’s match Gio Gonzalez (7-5, 3.50 ERA) against the Yankees’ A.J. Burnett (6-7, 4.90). The latter has been on the hill for six straight Yankees’ losses. Although he pitched very well in his last outing at Toronto, Burnett’s five prior starts amounted to 29 runs allowed in 23 innings. Gonzalez meanwhile, has only allowed five or more runs in two of his 17 starts this season, and has allowed just one run in 19-2/3 innings in his last three starts. Even with all of this info available for both pitchers, oddsmakers have installed the Yankees as -120 favorites. It all sets up for a very powerful system backing the home dogs:
• Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. (56-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +38.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The A’s offense is struggling right now, but it might not matter with Gonzalez on the hill. Look for Oakland to avoid a second 3-game home sweep of 2010.
(979) KANSAS CITY (DAVIES) at (980) SEATTLE (FISTER) 10:10 PM
Don’t look now but the Royals are playing very good baseball, and they will look for their first series sweep of 3-games or more in 2010 when they take on Seattle Wednesday night. Oddsmakers don’t like their chances, installing the Mariners are -145 favorites behind Doug Fister, but when sifting through the facts & figures, bettors may see things differently.
First and foremost, the Royals are killing the baseball of late, pounding out 125 hits during their current 9-3 surge. While leaving men on base has been a problem, they are getting just enough pitching to come out on the right end of the scoreboard most often.
The Mariners have gone just 4-8 since their season long 7-game winning streak was snapped a couple weeks back. The magic number for them has been five runs, as they are 4-0 in the 12-game stretch when reaching that figure as opposed to 0-8 when coming up short.
One other angle going for Kansas City is that Fister, while boasting strong stats for 2010 overall (3.22 ERA, 1.047 WHIP), has struggled his last three times out, yielding 14 runs in 16-1/3 innings.
Davies has been pretty effective for the Royals against lesser hitting teams on the road lately:
• DAVIES is 8-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was DAVIES 5.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Don’t be surprised to see the Royals finish this one off, despite oddsmakers’ indications.