Baseball betting pick
January 16th MLB news ... Welcome to Baseball betting pick, the site with the baseball gambler in mind.
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Whether you crave an analysis on a pitching match-up or a breakdown of how a particular team plays away on grass, this site will provide you with all of that information and so much more.
Be sure to log on daily during the baseball season if your goal is scoring a profit on the “boys of summer”.
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2010 ALCS Betting Odds and Preview2010-10-14
Sportsbook.com Series Price: New York Yankees -180, Texas Rangers +160
The Rangers make their Championship Series debut Friday when they host the Yankees in Game 1. The game features a pair of left-handed starters in CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) and C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA). Both southpaws are coming off ALDS wins with Sabathia working around some trouble in a 6-4 Yankees win while Wilson was lights out, limiting the Rays to just two hits over 6.1 shutout innings. Sportsbook.com currently has New York as -145 favorites over Texas (+135) for Friday night’s game.
After much debate, the Yankees have decided to go with Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA) in Game 2 and Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) in Game 3. The much maligned A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA) is set for Game 4.
Texas will send Colby Lewis to the mound in Game 2 (12-13, 3.72 ERA) and go with Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA) in Game 3. Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA) gets the nod in Game 4.
The Yankees and Rangers split their eight-game series this year, with Texas going 4-1 at home and the Yanks grabbing a three-game sweep in the Bronx April16-18.
Sabathia and Hughes have had tremendous success against this Texas lineup. Some significant numbers against Sabathia include Bengie Molina’s lifetime 1-for-19, Vladimir Guerrero’s 3-for-19 and Josh Hamilton’s 1-for-10. The 13 Rangers who have faced Sabathia are a combined 30-for-160 (.188 BA). Things are even worse for Texas against Phil Hughes. The Rangers are a paltry 3-for-38 against Hughes, with Michael Young and Jeff Francouer posting 0-for-7 marks against the right-hander. A.J. Burnett has held the Rangers to a .208 average while Texas hits Andy Pettitte at a .310 clip.
Nick Swisher and Derek Jeter have solid numbers against Texas’ projected starters, with Swisher going 6-for-20 against Wilson and 8-for-25 against Lee. Jeter enters the series 5-for-14 and 15-for-36 respectively. The opposite can be said for Alex Rodriguez who is just 1-for-13 against Wilson and a mediocre 6-for-22 (.273 BA) against Lee. Jeter is also the only Yankee to record a hit off Colby Lewis. Jeter is 3-for-5 with two HR lifetime while the other Yankees who have faced Lewis (Berkman, Posada, Teixeira) are 0-for-15
Here are some baseball betting trends that could shed some light on the ALCS:
NY YANKEES are 81-43 (+26.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.6, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES are 60-34 (+21.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*).
TEXAS is 16-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.4, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).
TEXAS Manager RON WASHINGTON is 42-24 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game in the second half of the season as the manager of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*).
GAME 1 ONLY - C.J. WILSON is 18-4 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record). The average score was WILSON 5.0, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*).
Now that you know the key numbers for the ALCS, head over to Sportsbook.com for all of your MLB betting needs.
MLB: Five teams go for sweeps on Wednesday2010-07-07
Another full schedule of 15 baseball games awaits on Wednesday night, and interestingly, in one-third of them, one of the teams is looking to wrap up a 3-game sweep of its opponent. The Cubs, Tigers, Rays, Yankees, and Royals all have a chance to finish off already successful series’. Let’s take a look at those matchups, focusing specifically on the sweep aspect and how we might take advantage for Wednesday. Get all of the key betting information for these and all 10 other MLB games on the GAME MATCHUPS page on Sportsbook.com.
(963) CHICAGO CUBS (DEMPSTER) at (964) ARIZONA (JACKSON) 9:40 PM
With a road record of 17-24 this season, sweeps are obviously a rarity for the Cubs when away from Wrigleyville. In fact, it has only happened one time in 2010, that being a 3-game set back in Milwaukee in late April. The Diamondbacks have been swept twice at home this season, as they lost six straight games to the Brewers and Dodgers back in May.
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Ryan Dempster vs. Edwin Jackson. The Cubs are just 6-11 in Dempster’s starts, while Arizona has won four straight games with Jackson on the hill, including the no-hitter at Tampa on June 25th.
One of the more interesting trends for today’s game concerns the Cubs’ struggles as road chalk this season:
• CHICAGO CUBS are 5-12 (-11.4 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
Dempster and the Cubs are playing as -115 favorites, but the StatFox Game Estimator indicates the line should be only -107. With Jackson pitching well of late, I’d say there’s a better chance the D-Backs avoid the sweep than the opposite.
(969) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) at (970) DETROIT (SCHERZER) 7:05 PM
The most likely sweep on the board today finds the Tigers looking for their third straight win over the Orioles. Detroit is a heavy -235 favorite according to Sportsbook.com with Max Scherzer (5-6, 4.88 ERA) taking the hill for the hosts and Bradley Bergesen (3-5, 6.64) going for the O’s. Baltimore is of course no stranger to seeing the brooms on the road, having been swept five times already in 2010. The Tigers are looking for their fifth home sweep themselves, and boast the American League’s best home mark overall at 29-12.
While the price on this one seems fairly steep with Scherzer’s overall 2010 numbers, the fact that he has a 1.69 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 25-2/3 innings in his last four starts makes it even tougher to back the underdogs. Plus, how can you overlook a trend like this:
• BALTIMORE is 10-40 (-24.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.1, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 3*)
(971) BOSTON (WAKEFIELD) at (972) TAMPA BAY (PRICE) 7:10 PM
When I focused on Game 1 of the 3-game set between the Red Sox and Rays on Monday night, I pointed out the following trend, which now includes back-to-back losses over the last two nights:
• BOSTON is 3-19 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 4*)
Having been turned back in consecutive one-run games, the Red Sox turn to Tim Wakefield to stop the bleeding. Unfortunately, Boston is only 5-8 in his starts this season and he is matched by a pitcher enjoying a breakout season in David Price (11-4, 2.42 ERA).
Perhaps the one thing going for the Sox here today is that WAKEFIELD is 18-6 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.249.
At -175, the Rays have been favored by a nickel more in each of the three consecutive contests. Considering that Boston has not been swept on the road since the beginning of May, and actually did the sweeping last time in Tampa (5/24-5/26), I’d be leery of laying this high price for Wednesday. The Sox left 11 men on base on Tuesday and are scoring 5.8 runs per game vs. lefties in 2010. They could be due for a breakout game.
(977) NY YANKEES (BURNETT) at (978) OAKLAND (GONZALEZ) 10:05 PM
As far as season numbers go, the A’s and Mariners have distinct starting pitching advantages in their quests to avoid getting swept at home. The A’s match Gio Gonzalez (7-5, 3.50 ERA) against the Yankees’ A.J. Burnett (6-7, 4.90). The latter has been on the hill for six straight Yankees’ losses. Although he pitched very well in his last outing at Toronto, Burnett’s five prior starts amounted to 29 runs allowed in 23 innings. Gonzalez meanwhile, has only allowed five or more runs in two of his 17 starts this season, and has allowed just one run in 19-2/3 innings in his last three starts. Even with all of this info available for both pitchers, oddsmakers have installed the Yankees as -120 favorites. It all sets up for a very powerful system backing the home dogs:
• Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. (56-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +38.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The A’s offense is struggling right now, but it might not matter with Gonzalez on the hill. Look for Oakland to avoid a second 3-game home sweep of 2010.
(979) KANSAS CITY (DAVIES) at (980) SEATTLE (FISTER) 10:10 PM
Don’t look now but the Royals are playing very good baseball, and they will look for their first series sweep of 3-games or more in 2010 when they take on Seattle Wednesday night. Oddsmakers don’t like their chances, installing the Mariners are -145 favorites behind Doug Fister, but when sifting through the facts & figures, bettors may see things differently.
First and foremost, the Royals are killing the baseball of late, pounding out 125 hits during their current 9-3 surge. While leaving men on base has been a problem, they are getting just enough pitching to come out on the right end of the scoreboard most often.
The Mariners have gone just 4-8 since their season long 7-game winning streak was snapped a couple weeks back. The magic number for them has been five runs, as they are 4-0 in the 12-game stretch when reaching that figure as opposed to 0-8 when coming up short.
One other angle going for Kansas City is that Fister, while boasting strong stats for 2010 overall (3.22 ERA, 1.047 WHIP), has struggled his last three times out, yielding 14 runs in 16-1/3 innings.
Davies has been pretty effective for the Royals against lesser hitting teams on the road lately:
• DAVIES is 8-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was DAVIES 5.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Don’t be surprised to see the Royals finish this one off, despite oddsmakers’ indications.
MLB: Time for MLB Trendy Talk 2010-05-25
Baseball, like any sport is often decided by how teams matchup. Often, little secrets emerge when two teams face off and they can be frequently found in baseball trends. Those participating in sports betting can grab an edge they might otherwise not have with a couple of key points about any given contest on a typical slate of 15 games. Take the time to peruse baseball’s top trends for tonight below, then head over to the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook.com for the latest game prices.
In the National League the Cincinnati Reds host Pittsburgh being tied with the St. Louis atop the Central Division. The Reds are a -170 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com and have feasted on rotten teams. Cincy is 12-2 playing against a bad club with 38-46 win percentage and is 11-2 if a NL team has an on-base percentage .315 or worse this season.
Philadelphia visits the New York Mets and is 10-2 on the road after seven or more consecutive home games the last three seasons. Tonight, the Phillies starter is Jamie Moyer and he and the Phils are 14-3 in road encounters against division opponents since 2008.
Atlanta heads to south Florida with the total at nine. This might be setting up as Under play since the Braves are 14-3 UNDER in road games when playing with a day off over the last three years and Florida starter Anibal Sanchez is 11-1 UNDER when the ML is +125 to -125.
The Houston at Milwaukee matchup is like picking your own poison. The Brewers are 4-14 at Miller Park and 2-7 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Astros on the other hand are 15-29 and 7-21 coming of a loss. Houston will start Felipe Paulino, who is 0-6 this year, and he and the ‘Stros are 2-15 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.
Over in the American League, two scuffling Central Division partners do battle in Cleveland. The Chicago White Sox are underachieving 19-25 and cannot formulate any momentum with 4-14 record after a win in 2010. The Indians have hitting and pitching woes are 4-17 after scoring four runs or less in five straight games since 2008. The Pale Hose are -132 ML favorites because of starter Jake Peavy.
Oakland has won three in a row and five of seven to climb back over .500 at 23-22 and has owned Baltimore with 13-2 mark. The A’s are -111 ML road faves behind Dallas “Mr. Perfect” Braden; however an inkling of doubt arises. The Athletics are feeble 0-13 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better.
Minnesota, like a lot of AL clubs, has problems with the New York Yankees. The Twins are 5-18 vs. New York and 4-7 at home the last couple of years. The simplest explanation is the 16-32 record vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better. Minnesota will try to change their luck in new Target Field against the Bronx Bombers, but are 12-30 versus AL squads scoring 5.2 or more runs a game.
The Toronto Blue Jays continue to mash, leading baseball with 76 dingers and are 12-4 in road encounters when playing against a team with a losing record after last night’s impressive 6-0 white-washing of the L.A. Angels. The Halos are presently listed as a Pick with a great deal of line movement. This evening they give the ball to Ervin Santana who is 22-8 throwing at the Big A vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs game. (Team's Record)